Political Partisanship is Increasing in Iowa

And thus far it is to the advantage of Republicans

The Iowa secretary of state’s website, whichever party controls it, has always been a wonderful source of election results and statistics.  Don’t be put off by numbers—numbers are our friend!  They tell us all sorts of interesting things.  Let’s take a look.

Americans talk a lot about the right to vote, but we don’t really mean it.  Presidential-election years have the highest voter turnout.  Nationwide voter turnout in those years tends to be around 60%, while turnout in midterm elections tends to be around 40%.  Both have increased a bit over the last several elections, but across the country presidential turnout remains just under 67% (two-thirds) and midterm turnout remains in the mid- to upper-40% range.

Iowa does better.  The state distinguishes between what it calls active voters and inactive voters.  The former are registered voters who voted in the most recent general election; the latter are registered voters who did not.

Due to stricter classification criteria enacted by Iowa Republicans in 2021, there are now fewer active registered voters and more inactive registered voters.  As of August 1, 2024, active voters are 70.2% of all registered voters, whereas on August 1, 2016, active voters were 91.3% of all registered voters.

Presidential-election years have the highest voter turnout in Iowa as well, but we do much better than the nation.  Statewide active-voter turnout in 2020 was 81.16%, and overall voter turnout, counting both active and inactive voters, was 75.77%

With no presidential race on the ballot, midterm elections generally have lower turnout in Iowa too.  Statewide active-voter turnout in 2022 was 65.43%, while overall turnout was 55.06%.

Now voting turnout is not quite the same as party identification, though of course they are related.  The former has to do with who votes; the latter has to do with the political party, if any, with which people identify.  In this regard there has been an interesting change in Iowa party identifications over the course of the past decade.

Generally speaking, and leaving aside minor, so-called “third” parties, the leading party registration in the recent past was normally the No Party category, which tended to have roughly 37% of active registered voters in it.  Republicans and Democrats would flip back and forth with roughly 31-33% of active voter registrations.

As an apples-to-apples example of this, we can look at active voter registration as of August 1, 2016.  The statewide total of active registered voters then was 1,937,225.  No Party was at 34.3%, Republicans at 33.5%, and Democrats, last, at 31.8%.  “Other” was at 0.4%.

IA-4, the congressional district in west and northwest Iowa that—allowing for shifting boundaries due to reapportionment—always has the highest proportion of Republican registrations, was at 40.0% in 2016.  No Party was at 34.2%, and Democrats last at 25.5%.  By contrast, IA-3, centered around the Des Moines metro area, had already lost its Democratic plurality by 2016.  Republican registrations were 35.2%, Democratic registrations following closely at 32.9%, and No Party registrations at 31.4%.

Now consider current party registrations as of August 1, 2024.  The statewide total of active registered voters now is 1,558,076.  The most striking aspect of this is that No Party has gone from its historical statewide plurality to a position of 3^rd place.  Statewide Republican registrations are now 40.5%, Democratic registrations 29.7%, No Party registrations 29.1%, and Libertarian registrations 0.6%.

Looking again at IA-4, we find that it is even more Republican now.  As of August 1, 2024, they are 50.8% of active registered voters there, whereas No Party are 26.2%, and Democrats last at 22.3% (and Libertarians again 0.6%).

In IA-3, Republicans are 37.7% of active registered voters, Democrats are 33.2%, and No Party is 28.3% (and Libertarians again 0.6%).

Clearly, tracking changes in the country, the increasing polarization we see there extends now to Iowa. Independent or No Party affiliation in Iowa is losing out to partisan affiliation.

There is nothing necessarily preferable about No Party status.  Most political-science studies indicate that independents group into thirds:  about a third vote like Republicans but don’t call themselves Republicans, and another third vote like Democrats but don’t call themselves Democrats.  The final third are the so-called pure independents, and they tend to have less interest and participation in, and less knowledge about, politics than partisans.

When I first became an Iowa resident in 1985, Iowa was a so-called purple state—we had a plurality of No Party registrants and meaningful major-party competition for elective offices at both the federal and state levels. 

Now, however, Iowa is a red state—not red like Alabama, Mississippi, or Texas, but red nonetheless.  The entire congressional delegation is Republican, and the only major statewide office held by Democrats is state auditor (Rob Sand).

Perhaps more important, the Republicans have overwhelming majorities in the Iowa Senate (34-16) and Iowa House (64-36), not to mention the Republican streak in the Governor’s Terrace Hill residence since 2012.

Iowa Democrats are in a deep hole and clearly have their work cut out for them.  They can’t rely on a decreasing number of No Party registered voters to accomplish it. 

Perhaps more important, Iowa voters may be separating into the two increasingly antagonistic tribes that we see elsewhere.  Let’s hope politics here, already tough, doesn’t become as ugly as it is in too many other states.